2024 Election Analysis: Trump Gains Ground in Latest Quantus Insights Models
Trump Leads in Electoral Projections as Harris Struggles to Close the Gap
As of October 21st, the 2024 election race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris continues to shift, with Trump pulling ahead in the latest projections from Quantus Insights. Based on a combination of our models—Modus, Electorate, Consensus, and Concordia—Trump has now secured a clear 63% probability of winning 312 electoral votes, marking a 2-point increase since the last update.
Harris Faces Uphill Battle
For Kamala Harris, the outlook is less optimistic. She is projected to win 226 electoral votes, with her probability of victory falling to 37%, a 2-point drop compared to previous forecasts. While Harris continues to maintain strength in the popular vote, her path to an electoral victory has grown increasingly narrow as the battleground state margins shift in Trump’s favor.
Breaking Down the Models
Quantus Insights integrates multiple forecasting models to produce these results, each emphasizing different factors at play in the election:
Electorate Model (Demographics): Harris holds a small lead, with a 1.1-point advantage over Trump, supported by key demographic groups. This reflects her continued strength with younger, diverse voters, but these gains are not yet translating into critical electoral votes.
Modus Model (Voter Sentiment): While both candidates are nearly tied here, Harris leads by 0.9 points, signaling that her messaging is resonating slightly better with certain voters. However, this small advantage hasn’t been enough to turn the tide in battleground states.
Consensus Model (Economic Sentiment): This is where Trump shines, holding a 1.1-point lead over Harris. Voter sentiment around economic factors like inflation and consumer confidence continues to favor Trump, bolstering his overall probability of electoral victory.
Concordia Model (Historical Probabilities): Harris shows some strength here, with a 6.2 composite score—historically aligning with a 43% chance of winning. This suggests that while her national odds are challenging, she is still competitive in critical scenarios, particularly if economic conditions shift or her favorability improves in key states.
The Path Forward
Despite Harris holding a slight edge in the popular vote (as shown in individual models), Trump’s increasing advantage in the Electoral College has solidified his frontrunner status. His projected 312 electoral votes reflect a growing strength in pivotal swing states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania —states that could push him past the critical threshold for victory.
Harris, on the other hand, will need to shore up support in traditional Democratic strongholds and make significant inroads with key voting blocs to reverse the current trajectory. Her success may depend on winning back voter trust on economic issues and leveraging certain demographic advantages among minority groups and women.
What’s Next?
As the race enters its final stretch, the electoral map is taking shape in Trump’s favor. Still, with roughly two weeks left until Election Day, it’s uncertain if there will be significant shifts in these probabilities.
For Harris to regain momentum, she will likely need to swing voter sentiment in her favor—particularly around the economy, where Trump currently holds a decisive lead.