2024 Presidential Election Survey: A Tight Race Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Analyzing Voter Preferences, Candidate Favorability, and the Impact of Key Developments in a Highly Competitive Election
Survey Overview
The latest Quantus Polls and News national survey (cross tabs and questions), conducted from August 26th to August 27th, 2024, and by sponsored Trending Politics, provides a critical snapshot of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, reflecting the intense competition between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The survey, conducted among 1,094 likely voters, reveals a narrow head-to-head lead for Harris, who holds 49% of the vote to Trump’s 47%, with 4% of voters saying they would not vote. These results underscore the highly competitive nature of the race as both candidates vie for the presidency in a deeply polarized political landscape.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online using an extensive panel designed to accurately represent the national electorate. Respondents were screened for likely voter status based on their historical voting behavior and stated likelihood of voting in the upcoming election. The margin of error for this survey is ±2.96%, providing a robust and reliable reflection of voter sentiment at this crucial juncture in the campaign. Weighting was applied across several demographic variables, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and partisan identity, to ensure the survey results are reflective of the broader national electorate.
Weighting Methodologies
To achieve a representative sample, the survey employed an iterative proportional fitting (raking) method. This technique adjusted the sample to align with known demographic parameters, enhancing the accuracy of the survey in mirroring the overall electorate. The demographic breakdown of the weighted sample is as follows:
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male
Age: 18-29 (15%), 30-44 (22%), 45-64 (36%), 65+ (27%)
Race/Ethnicity: 70% White, 12% Black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Other
Education: 62% Non-college graduates, 38% College graduates
Partisan ID: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 29% Independent
Key Findings
Political Identity and Voting Behavior
Respondents were asked to describe their political identity and voting behavior. The survey results show that:
Political Identity:
Very Liberal: 12%
Somewhat Liberal: 21%
Moderate: 24%
Somewhat Conservative: 28%
Very Conservative: 15%
Party Affiliation:
Democrat: 36%
Republican: 35%
Independent lean Democrat: 15%
Independent lean Republican: 14%
The data indicates a balanced political landscape with near-equal representation of Democrats and Republicans, highlighting the potential for significant electoral shifts depending on campaign dynamics and voter turnout.
Favorability Ratings
The survey also explored the favorability ratings of the two leading candidates:
Kamala Harris:
Favorable: 49% (Very Favorable: 25%, Favorable: 24%)
Unfavorable: 48% (Very Unfavorable: 38%, Somewhat Unfavorable: 10%)
No opinion: 3%
Donald Trump:
Favorable: 46% (Very Favorable: 22%, Favorable: 24%)
Unfavorable: 52% (Very Unfavorable: 40%, Somewhat Unfavorable: 12%)
No opinion: 2%
These results demonstrate that both candidates have strong but divided bases of support, with a significant portion of the electorate holding unfavorable views of each candidate. This polarization is likely to play a crucial role in voter turnout and overall election dynamics.
Impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Withdrawal and Endorsement of Donald Trump
One of the most significant developments in the 2024 election cycle has been the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the presidential race and his subsequent endorsement of former President Donald Trump. The recent change to the race has so far shown to have minimal impact in terms of shifting the overall race dynamics.
The survey results reveal that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump reveal while 17% of respondents indicated they were more likely to vote for Trump because of Kennedy's endorsement, and 15% said they were more likely to support Harris in response, the majority of voters (60%) reported that Kennedy’s decision had no impact on their choice, as they had already made up their minds. This data suggests that while Kennedy’s endorsement has some impact, the majority of the electorate had firm preferences prior to his withdrawal.
The results also show that 8% of voters remain unsure about how Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement will affect their voting decision. This uncertainty underscores the potential volatility of the electorate and the importance of campaign strategies in the final months leading up to the election.
Overall, the endorsement by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to have slightly benefited Trump, drawing in some of Kennedy’s former supporters, but it has also energized a segment of the electorate that is opposed to Trump, leading them to rally around Harris. The full impact of this development will likely become clearer as the campaign progresses, but it is evident that Kennedy’s decision has added another layer of complexity to an already highly competitive race.
Head-to-Head Matchups
When asked to choose between Harris and Trump if election were held tomorrow, respondents provided the following insights:
Kamala Harris: 49%
Donald Trump: 47%
Would not vote: 4%
In addition to the binary choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, respondents were also presented with a broader field of options to capture a more nuanced picture of voter preferences. The full field question asked, "If the November 2024 election for U.S. president was being held tomorrow, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?"
The responses were as follows:
Kamala Harris: 47.1%
Donald Trump: 44.6%
Some other candidate: 4.2%
Undecided: 4.1%
These results further emphasize the competitive nature of the race, with Harris leading Trump by a slim margin. The presence of third-party candidates, capturing 4.2% of the vote, along with 4.1% of voters remaining undecided, indicates that a significant portion of the electorate is either looking for alternatives or is still uncertain about their final decision.
This broader field question highlights the potential for shifts in voter support as the election approaches, especially among those who currently support third-party candidates or remain undecided. Both major candidates will need to focus on winning over these voters to secure a decisive victory.
The close nature of the race is further reflected in the demographic breakdowns:
Gender: Harris leads among women (54%), while Trump leads among men (53%).
Age: Harris is favored by younger voters (52% among 18-29 years), while Trump has stronger support among older voters (50% among those 65+).
Race: Harris has overwhelming support from Black voters (82%) and Hispanic voters (57%), whereas Trump is favored by White voters (54%).
Education: Harris leads among college graduates (56%), while Trump is more popular among non-college graduates (51%).
Issue Importance and Trust
Voters were also asked about the most pressing issues and whom they trust to handle them:
Most Pressing Issue: The economy and jobs (41%) emerged as the top concern, followed by immigration and border security (18%), and healthcare/abortion (16%).
Trust to Handle Issues:
Economy and Jobs: Trump 48%, Harris 45%
Immigration and Border Security: Trump 48%, Harris 39%
Healthcare and Abortion: Harris 55%, Trump 32%
These findings suggest that while Trump holds an edge on economic and immigration issues, Harris is more trusted on healthcare and education, particularly among college-educated voters and minority groups.
Election Prediction
When asked who they believe will win the election, the electorate was almost evenly divided with Harris leading by four points.
Kamala Harris: 52%
Donald Trump: 48%
This result reflects the intense uncertainty and competitiveness of the race, with both candidates having strong, though nearly equal, chances of securing the presidency.
Conclusion
The Quantus Polls and News national survey underscores the highly competitive nature of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump enjoy solid support within their respective bases, but they also face significant challenges due to high unfavorability ratings. The electorate remains deeply polarized along demographic and ideological lines, with key differences in support based on gender, age, race, and education.
As the race continues, both campaigns will need to focus on mobilizing their core supporters and appealing to undecided and indepdendent voters, particularly in swing regions and among critical demographics. With the race this close, the final outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and the effectiveness of each candidate's campaign strategy in the remaining weeks before Election Day.
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