2024 Wisconsin Presidential Race: Harris and Trump Neck and Neck in Crucial Battleground State
Quantus Polls and News Reveals a Tightly Contested Election as Voters Weigh Key Issues and Candidate Trustworthiness
Survey Overview
The latest Quantus Polls and News (with Trending Politics) Wisconsin survey, conducted among 601 registered voters on August 14-15, 2024, provides a close-up view of the 2024 presidential race in this key battleground state. The survey shows a highly competitive contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Harris leading by a narrow margin of about one point. The results emphasize the intense competition in Wisconsin, a state that could be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. The survey also explores voter opinions on key issues, favorability ratings of the candidates, and their trust in handling critical national concerns.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online over two days, from August 14th to August 15th, 2024. The sample comprised 601 registered voters, carefully selected and weighted to reflect the demographic and political landscape of Wisconsin. The margin of error for the survey is ±4.0%, providing a reliable snapshot of public sentiment at this stage of the election. The survey employed robust sampling techniques, ensuring that the data accurately represents the diverse electorate of the state.
Weighting Methodologies
To achieve a representative sample, the survey results were weighted across multiple demographic variables, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and region. The iterative proportional fitting (raking) method was used to align the sample with known population parameters, enhancing the accuracy of the survey in reflecting the broader Wisconsin electorate. This weighting ensures that the insights derived from the survey can be generalized to the entire registered voter population in the state.
Demographic Breakdown:
Gender: 51% Female, 49% Male
Age: 18-29 (13%), 30-44 (27%), 45-64 (33%), 65+ (27%)
Race/Ethnicity: 86% White, 7% Black, 7% Hispanic/Other
Education: 38% College Graduates, 62% Non-College Graduates
Key Findings
Question 1: Did you vote in the 2020 presidential election? If so, which candidate did you support?
Joe Biden (Democrat): 46.5%
Donald Trump (Republican): 44.3%
Another candidate: 2.3%
Don’t remember/didn’t vote: 6.9%
The recall is greater than the actual 2020 margin seen in the 2020 election; yet, still reflecting the competitive nature of the electorate in Wisconsin.
Question 2: Which of the following best describes you politically?
Democrat: 34%
Republican: 36%
Independent: 30%
The political identification of respondents shows a slight Republican advantage, with Independents making up a significant portion of the electorate. This distribution highlights the potential for electoral shifts depending on candidate appeal and campaign strategies.
Question 3: Overall opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris
Very Favorable: 25%
Favorable: 23%
Unfavorable: 18%
Very Unfavorable: 34%
Kamala Harris’s favorability is mixed, with 48% of respondents holding a favorable view, while 52% view her unfavorably. The high percentage of very unfavorable opinions (34%) suggests strong opposition to her candidacy among a significant portion of the electorate.
Question 4: Overall opinion of former President Donald Trump
Very Favorable: 22%
Favorable: 24%
Unfavorable: 43%
Very Unfavorable: 11%
Donald Trump’s favorability is similarly polarized, with 46% of respondents viewing him favorably compared to 54% who view him unfavorably. The substantial percentage of unfavorable opinions highlights the challenges Trump faces in garnering broad-based support.
Question 5: If the U.S. presidential election were held today and your choices are between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, who would you support?
Kamala Harris, the Democrat: 46.2%
Donald Trump, the Republican: 44.6%
Undecided/Other: 9.3%
The race is nearly a dead heat, with Harris holding a marginal lead over Trump within the margin of error. The cross-tabulation data provides deeper insights into how different demographics are shaping up in this tight race:
Gender: Trump leads among men (49%), while Harris is favored by women (51%)
Age: Harris is more popular among younger voters aged 18-29 (50%), whereas Trump has stronger support among older voters aged 45-64 (49%).
Race: Harris is overwhelmingly favored by Black voters (73%) and Hispanic voters (55%), while Trump is preferred by White voters (49%).
Education: Harris leads among college graduates (53%), while Trump is more popular among those without a college degree (50%).
Question 6: Who do you trust most to handle these issues?
Economy and Jobs: Trump 48.7%, Harris 46.7%
Immigration and Border Security: Trump 51.7%, Harris 38.7%
Crime and Safety: Trump 47.3%, Harris 47.6%
National Security/Foreign Policy: Trump 47.1%, Harris 46.6%
Abortion Rights and Restrictions: Trump 33.9%, Harris 61.4%
Trump is seen as more trustworthy on economic and security issues, with a significant edge in handling immigration. Harris, however, is strongly preferred on abortion rights, an issue that could prove pivotal in mobilizing female voters.
Question 7: Which presidential candidate, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, do you believe better understands the values and issues for the state of Wisconsin?
Donald Trump, the Republican: 49%
Kamala Harris, the Democrat: 51%
The electorate is almost evenly divided on which candidate better understands Wisconsin's values and issues, with Harris slightly ahead. This suggests that both candidates need to focus on addressing state-specific concerns to gain an edge in this battleground state.
Question 8: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kamala Harris is doing as Vice President of the United States?
Strongly Approve: 18%
Approve: 30%
Disapprove: 17%
Strongly Disapprove: 35%
Harris has a slightly positive approval rating, with 48% approving of her job performance compared to 52% who disapprove. The balance between approval and disapproval ratings suggests a highly contested perception of her effectiveness as Vice President.
Question 9: Thinking back, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did as President of the United States?
Strongly Approve: 22%
Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 16%
Strongly Disapprove: 37%
Trump’s retrospective job approval ratings are similarly divided, with a slight majority (53%) disapproving of his performance as President, compared to 47% who approve. The intensity of disapproval is underscored by the 37% who strongly disapprove of his tenure.
Question 10: If the only two choices for president were Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, which candidate would you vote for?
Kamala Harris: 47.8%
Donald Trump: 46.9%
Would not vote: 5.3%
The race remains extremely close, with Harris holding a narrow lead. Cross-tabulation analysis reveals several key insights that explain the dynamics behind these numbers:
Gender: Harris leads among women with 55% of the vote compared to Trump’s 41%, whereas Trump has a slight edge among men with 53% to Harris’s 45%. This gender gap highlights the importance of female voters to Harris’s lead.
Age: Among younger voters aged 18-29, Harris is significantly favored, securing 56% of the vote compared to Trump’s 39%. This contrasts with older voters aged 45-64, where Trump leads with 52% compared to Harris’s 47%. The generational divide suggests that Harris’s support is stronger among younger, more progressive voters, while Trump appeals more to older and conservative, segments of the population.
Race: Harris is overwhelmingly favored by Black voters, capturing 78% of their vote, and has substantial support among Hispanic/Other voters with 61%. Trump, on the other hand, is the preferred candidate among White voters, leading with 53%. This racial divide underscores the demographic challenges both candidates face in broadening their appeal across different racial and ethnic groups.
Education: Harris leads among college graduates, receiving 55% of their vote, compared to Trump’s 40%. Conversely, Trump has stronger support among voters without a college degree, leading with 52%. This education gap reflects broader national trends where more educated voters are leaning towards Democratic candidates, while those without a degree are more likely to support Republicans.
These demographic insights reveal the underlying factors contributing to the nearly even split in voter preference between Harris and Trump. The small percentage of undecided voters and those who would not vote (5.3%) indicates that both candidates have limited room to sway the electorate, making voter turnout and campaign strategies crucial in the final months before the election.
Conclusion
The Quantus Polls and News survey highlights a deeply polarized electorate in Wisconsin, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump garnering nearly equal support among registered voters. The demographic divides have significant differences in candidate support based on gender, age, race, and education. These divides suggest that both candidates face challenges in overcoming high unfavorable ratings and in securing broad-based support. As the race tightens, the focus will likely shift towards mobilizing core supporters and appealing to the small but critical segment of undecided voters.
Implications
The slight edge that Harris currently holds in the poll could easily shift as the campaign progresses, making it essential for both candidates to remain disciplined and agile as the race intensifies. With the electorate so closely divided, the outcome of the 2024 election will hinge on the ability of each campaign to effectively mobilize their base supporters and appeal to the small but crucial group of persuadable voters.