Analysis of the 2024 General Election Survey in Virginia
A Deep Dive into Voter Preferences and Key Issues from Virginia Political Survey
Introduction
Quantus Polls and News conducted a survey (sponsored by Trending Politics News) among 629 registered voters in Virginia between August 20 and 22, 2024. The survey, with a margin of error of ±4%, was carefully weighted to reflect the statewide voter demographics, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, voter registration, and turnout patterns. Using online panels, the survey aimed to provide a representative snapshot of the Virginia electorate's current preferences and opinions as the 2024 general election approaches.
Electorate Demographics
The weighted results of the survey reveal the following demographic breakdown: 36% of respondents identify as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 30% as Independents. The gender distribution shows a slight majority of female voters at 51.5%, compared to 48.5% male voters. Age-wise, the electorate is fairly evenly distributed, with the largest group being those aged 45-64 (37%), followed by those aged 30-44 (24%) and 65+ (24%). Racially, 68% of respondents are White, 18% are Black, and 14% identify as Hispanic or other racial/ethnic groups. Regarding education, 57% of respondents have not completed college, while 43% have a college degree.
Voting History and Political Affiliation
When asked about their voting behavior in the 2020 presidential election, 51% of respondents reported voting for Joe Biden, while 39% supported Donald Trump. The remaining respondents either voted for another candidate (2%) or did not vote/remember (8%). Politically, the respondents are fairly evenly split, with 36% identifying as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 30% as Independents. This balance reflected the competitive nature of Virginia's electorate, where neither party holds a decisive advantage.
Candidate Favorability
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump present starkly different profiles to the Virginia electorate. Harris enjoys a favorability rating of 49% (26% very favorable, 23% favorable), with 51% viewing her unfavorably (18% unfavorable, 33% very unfavorable).
Trump, on the other hand, has a favorability rating of 44% (23% very favorable, 21% favorable) and a higher unfavorability rating of 56% (18% unfavorable, 38% very unfavorable). These favorability ratings suggest a polarized electorate, with strong opinions on both candidates.
Head-to-Head Matchups
The survey highlights a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Before President Biden's decision to drop out of the race, the electorate was evenly split, with 45% planning to vote for Biden and 45% for Trump. Between Harris and Trump, Harris leads with 47% of the vote compared to Trump's 44%, with 9% of voters either undecided or supporting another candidate.
When voters were asked directly whom they would support if the only two choices for president were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Harris garnered 48.6% of the vote, while Trump received 45.8%. Notably, 5.6% of respondents indicated they would not vote if these were the only two options.
Breaking down these results demographically:
Gender: Trump has a strong lead among male voters (53% vs. 40% for Harris), while Harris is favored by female voters (57% vs. 39% for Trump).
Age: Harris is particularly strong among younger voters, with 57% of those aged 18-29 supporting her compared to 39% for Trump. However, Trump has a slight edge among the oldest voters (65+), where he leads with 50% to Harris's 42%.
Race: Racially, Harris leads significantly among Black voters (76% vs. 15% for Trump), while Trump is favored by White voters (53% vs. 42% for Harris). Hispanic/Other voters are evenly split between the two candidates (45% each), with 10% indicating they would not vote.
Education: Harris has a substantial lead among college graduates, with 59% supporting her compared to 37% for Trump. Conversely, Trump leads among voters with no college or some college education (53% vs. 42% for Harris).
Partisan Identity: As expected, Trump is overwhelmingly supported by Republicans (93% vs. 4% for Harris), while Harris dominates among Democrats (92% vs. 6% for Trump). Among Independents, Harris has a lead with 48% compared to Trump's 39%, but a significant 14% of Independents would choose not to vote.
This head-to-head matchup indicates a highly polarized electorate, with each candidate drawing strong support from their respective bases. However, Harris's slight overall lead, particularly among key demographics such as women, younger voters, and minority groups, and Independents could be critical in determining the outcome in Virginia. The presence of a "would not vote" option suggests that voter turnout and the ability to mobilize base supporters could play a crucial role in this closely contested race.
Trust on Key Issues
The survey also explored voter trust in each candidate's ability to handle key issues. Trump is slightly favored on the economy (48.4% vs. 47.3%), immigration (50.2% vs. 41.2%), and national security (46.5% vs. 47.8%). Harris, however, is trusted more on issues such as crime and safety (48.1% vs. 47.4%) and abortion rights (58.4% vs. 34.9%). These results indicate that voters' issue preferences could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
Key Issues in the Election
Voters were also asked to identify the most important issue in this election. The economy emerged as the top concern, with 37% of respondents indicating it as their primary issue. The direction of the country was the second most important issue at 32%, followed by abortion at 11%, immigration at 8%, foreign policy at 4%, and crime at 2%. Additionally, 6% of respondents mentioned other issues or were unsure.
These priorities underscore the importance of economic issues in the minds of Virginia voters, along with a significant concern about the overall direction of the country. The relatively lower emphasis on crime and foreign policy suggests that domestic issues will dominate voter decision-making in this election.
Conclusion
The survey conducted by Quantus Polls and News paints a picture of a surprsingly competitive race in Virginia for the 2024 general election. With both Harris and Trump receiving support, the state could shapeup to be a key battleground. Harris's slight edge in the overall vote, particularly among women, younger voters, and minority groups, contrasts with Trump's strength among older, White, and less-educated voters. As the election draws closer, the candidates' ability to address voters' top concerns—especially the economy and the direction of the country—will likely be decisive in determining the winner.