Economic Indicators Signal a Challenging Path to Victory or Harris
Assessing Economic Sentiment in the 2024 Election
In political forecasting, economic models provide crucial insights into how public sentiment and economic conditions shape election outcomes. For the 2024 election, two key models—Modus and Consensus—shed light on Kamala Harris’ difficult position as the Democratic nominee. These models integrate economic indicators, consumer sentiment indexes, and polling data to project the likely outcome of the race. Both models consistently highlight the challenging environment Harris faces in light of current economic conditions.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index provides a key metric for understanding voter sentiment. When incumbent parties win re-election, the average score has historically been 90.3. For instance, Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 with an improving sentiment score near this level. In contrast, when incumbents lose re-election, the score averages 84.9—as seen with George H.W. Bush in 1992, when he lost to Bill Clinton amid economic uncertainty.
In the current political environment, the sentiment score stands at a much lower 67.9, a historically poor figure. This low score suggests that voters are highly pessimistic about the economy, which is a significant red flag for Harris’ chances of winning in 2024. Modus and Consensus incorporate this sentiment data into their forecasts, which is why they project such difficult odds for Harris. Furthermore, the Concordia model adds another layer of analysis, assigning Harris a composite score of 5.1, below the typical threshold (7-point composite score) for re-election success, according to the model.
The Modus and Consensus Models Explained
Modus is a comprehensive forecasting model that integrates economic sentiment factors and polling approval/favorability ratings to predict voter behavior. It gives significant weight to polling data while also incorporating economic factors like the Misery Index, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). This blend provides a real-time view of voter sentiment, reflecting both the immediate political landscape and long-term economic conditions. Modus has consistently shown that poor economic sentiment often correlates with lower incumbent party vote shares.
Consensus, on the other hand, combines both predictive economic factors and polling data to offer a more holistic view of the political landscape. This model underscores that even strong polling numbers can be undermined by economic dissatisfaction, as voters tend to prioritize financial concerns. Consensus is particularly useful for measuring trends in swing states, where the electorate is sensitive to economic fluctuations.
How Economic Sentiment Tilts Elections
Historically, elections are often won or lost based on the public’s view of the economy. Ronald Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984 was buoyed by a strong economic recovery, and the famous phrase "It's the economy, stupid" helped Bill Clinton defeat George H.W. Bush in 1992.
In both Modus and Consensus, the 2024 projections are clear: economic factors, particularly the low consumer sentiment score of 67.9, suggest a tough re-election environment for Harris and the Democratic Party. When consumer sentiment falls below 80, it often signals significant public dissatisfaction, which historically leads to incumbent defeats. In contrast, higher sentiment scores—like those seen during Reagan's re-election—indicate optimism and are associated with incumbent victories.
For Harris, both models show that economic sentiment is negative, suggesting a shift in voter priorities. Comparisons to the 1992 election, where George H.W. Bush faced a similar economic downturn with sentiment scores in the mid-70s, further highlight the risks Harris faces.
Consensus and Modus on 2024: Economic Challenges for Harris
While polling may show close races, both Modus and Consensus suggest that economic dissatisfaction could prove decisive in battleground states. Consensus, which focuses on combining economic and polling data, indicates that key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—which narrowly supported Biden in 2020—are now tilting Republican, especially if economic conditions do not improve.
In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won these states despite losing the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points. In 2020, Biden reclaimed them, but by narrower margins than expected. Both models suggest that these states may now be trending back toward the Republican camp, given the current economic environment. For Harris, retaining these states is crucial, but the economic sentiment and voter trends indicate an uphill battle.
Conclusion
Both Modus and Consensus, rooted in historical data and economic sentiment, point to a challenging environment for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. The current consumer sentiment score of 67.9 is far below what typically signals success for incumbent-party candidates. Harris’ odds, as projected by these models, reflect the difficulty of overcoming such low economic sentiment. Historical comparisons show that when the economy is struggling, so too are incumbents. Without a significant shift in public sentiment or economic conditions, Harris may face long odds in a competitive and closely watched election. The models make one thing clear: unless there is a major change, the path to victory in 2024 will be a steep one for Harris.