Kemp Leads Ossoff in Hypothetical 2026 Georgia Senate Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate Race Begins to Take Shape as Voters Weigh Their Choices
Georgia has comfortably taken its seat as a key battleground state this decade—once a deep-red fortress, now a purple prize both parties are desperate to claim. The hypothetical 2026 Senate race between Republican Governor Brian Kemp and Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation. And according to our latest Quantus Insights poll, if early numbers are any indication, it’s Kemp’s race to lose (SEE CROSS TABS HERE).
Kemp’s Edge: A Steady Hand in the Peach State
Brian Kemp, the unflappable two-term governor, enters the Senate race with a +33 net approval rating—a political accomplishment in a state that has seen its share of partisan turmoil. Kemp’s near 4-point lead over Ossoff in this hypothetical matchup sits at 48.2% to 44.5% but the devil is in the details.
Kemp’s strength lies in his rock-solid Republican base (93% favorability) and strong support among white voters (69%). He also dominates among older voters, leading by 20 points among those 65+, a group that reliably turns out on Election Day. His advantage among non-college voters (52% to Ossoff’s 41%) further cements his appeal among working-class Georgians. If historical turnout patterns hold, Kemp stands in a strong position heading into the race.
Ossoff’s Uphill Climb: A Youthful Base, But a Murky Path Forward
Senator Jon Ossoff isn’t exactly struggling—his +13 net approval rating suggests he has plenty of goodwill—but nearly a quarter of voters have no opinion on his performance. That’s a warning sign for a sitting senator, especially against a well-defined opponent like Kemp.
Ossoff’s coalition relies on three key voting blocs: African American voters (81% support), younger voters (52% among 18-29-year-olds), and college-educated Georgians (50% to Kemp’s 43%). But these are the very groups that have historically lower midterm turnout. His path to victory depends on reenergizing the same Democratic coalition that secured wins in Georgia in 2020 and 2022—but with Donald Trump’s successful comeback in 2024, can he do it?
The Deciders: Independents & Suburban Voters
While Kemp holds an early lead, the electorate has yet to take shape. Independents are nearly split—42% favor Kemp, 48% back Ossoff, and 10% remain undecided. Suburban voters, who flipped Georgia blue in 2020 and 2022, remain the wild card. If they drift back toward the GOP, Kemp can cruise. If Ossoff keeps them in the fold, Georgia could once again be decided by razor-thin margins.
The Verdict: Kemp in the Driver’s Seat—For Now
Ossoff caught the political winds of 2020, but he now faces a formidable opponent who has already beaten back Democratic challenges twice. If the election were held today, Kemp would likely be the next U.S. senator from Georgia.
But 2026 is still a long way off, and Kemp himself has yet to formally declare his candidacy. Georgia’s political landscape has become one of the most contested in the country, with thin margins deciding elections. Either way, one thing is certain: Georgia remains at the heart of America’s political battlefield, but this race hasn’t even begun.