Latest Quantus Insights Poll:No Mandate, But Momentum

Trump's base is locked in. On immigration and foreign policy, the public is with him.

With his first 100 days in office behind him, President Trump stands with a nation split nearly right down the middle. The latest Quantus poll, fielded May 18–20 among 1,000 registered voters, reveals a presidency marked by deep polarization, but also by durability. On job approval, Trump earns 48.3% support, with 47.8% disapproving. These aren’t soaring numbers—but they are solid, especially for a man presiding over a country still reeling from a tumultuous decade.

Trump's strength lies where it always has: with Republicans, white working-class voters, and the politically disaffected. His approval among Republicans holds steady at 92%, with just 6% opposing him. Among Independents, the picture is more complex: Trump captures 40% approval but faces a 51% disapproval rate—suggesting that while he maintains a foothold, the center remains fluid and far from secure.

The gender gap remains real and persistent. A majority of men (54%) back Trump, while 53% of women disapprove. This divide is not simply about policy. It reflects two very different visions of America: one rooted in traditional values, order, and national strength; the other in progressive social change and expanded government power.

On the economy, the numbers are tighter. 45.3% approve of Trump’s handling of it, while 49.6% disapprove. That might raise eyebrows—especially given low inflation, recent growth in key sectors, and rising wages. But economic perception isn’t just about data. It’s about trajectory and trust. Among Independents, a slim majority (54%) disapprove of how Trump is managing the economy. And among Black voters (70%) and women (54%), discontent remains high. The message is clear: even if conditions are improving on paper, many Americans aren’t yet feeling it in their lives.

That theme continues in the broader economic perception numbers. When asked if the economy is improving, staying the same, or getting worse, only 37% said it’s improving. 38% say it's getting worse. For a president seeking to consolidate power post-election, that’s a warning sign. Optimism has not yet broken through.

On immigration, Trump holds a commanding lead. When asked whether mass deportations of undocumented immigrants would be good or bad for the country, 59% said good, compared to just 37% who said bad. This isn’t a 50-50 country on immigration enforcement—it’s a clear majority in favor of a harder line. That level of support underscores how central immigration remains to Trump’s political identity and to the coalition that brought him back into office.

On foreign policy, Trump shows strength where presidents usually tread cautiously. 59% of voters support his efforts to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and open direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear weapons program. Only 35% oppose. In an era where foreign entanglements often breed public skepticism, these numbers point to a rare consensus: voters may not trust the world, but they trust Trump to deal with it.

Beneath all this is a quieter but more damaging current—voter perception of President Biden’s health during his time in office. 65% of voters believe Biden’s health issues, including cognitive decline and recent cancer reports, were intentionally downplayed or covered up. That includes a majority of Independents. And 74% say Biden did not have the cognitive fitness to serve effectively during his presidency. These are not idle numbers. If the public believes a president was not in charge, the debate over policy becomes secondary. Legitimacy itself is called into question.

Finally, in a question about the past, Trump may be winning the long game. When asked who they would vote for if the 2020 election were held again today, 52% said Trump, and only 45% said Biden. Trump not only holds his coalition—he’s picking off Independents, swing voters, and possibly some who once backed Biden and now feel betrayed or misled.

This is the landscape as it stands: not a mandate, but a warning. The country is split but Trump’s side is energized while the rest of the country lags in confidence. If Democrats thought 2024 was the reckoning, they may want to brace for 2026. Because the fight isn’t over. It may just be beginning.