Our latest polling finds Trump underwater, Democrats holding a narrow House edge, and strong support for proof-of-citizenship voting requirements.
Our latest Quantus Insights survey finds an electorate that is highly engaged, sharply polarized, and not much inclined to give the president the benefit of the doubt. Yet it also shows something more complicated than a simple anti-incumbent mood: voters are prepared to part company with the White House on performance, while still backing certain nationally coded policy ideas on their own merits. (The full technical report and cross tabs are available here. Our interactive site will be updated later today, and that link will be added here upon publication).
The broad outline is clear enough. President Trump’s job approval stands underwater, with 44.4% approving and 55.1% disapproving. The country’s mood is no brighter: 55.6% say the nation is on the wrong track, against 40.0% who say it is headed in the right direction. And if the 2026 House election were held today, Democrats would hold a modest but real advantage on the generic ballot, 46.7% to 41.7%, with another 11.6% either undecided or opting for another candidate.
That is not the portrait of a contented country. It is the portrait of a country that remains divided, but where the burden of proof rests with those in power.
What gives these numbers their force is not only the direction of opinion, but its intensity. Trump’s ratings are not soft. More than half of all voters, 52.3%, strongly disapprove of his handling of the presidency, while 40.1% strongly approve. Likewise on the Iran question, disapproval is not merely present but emphatic: 55.0% strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the U.S.-Iran war, while only 31.7% strongly approve. In both cases, the center is thin. There is not much mush here. The lines are drawn.
And yet, for all that dissatisfaction, the political battlefield is not closed. The most striking finding in the survey may be the intensity of turnout intent. Fully 75.9% of likely voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the 2026 midterms, and another 11.7% say they are very motivated. That means nearly nine in ten voters are already highly engaged. Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to describe themselves as extremely motivated, 79.6% to 74.8%, but both coalitions are plainly mobilized. This is not an environment where one side can count on apathy to do its work.
Age tells an important part of the story. Older voters remain competitive terrain for Republicans. Among voters 65 and older, Trump’s approval is nearly even, and Republicans lead by five points on the House ballot, 48.4% to 43.3%. Among voters 45 to 64, the congressional vote is essentially a toss-up, though Republicans again hold a narrow edge. But the younger cohorts are far less forgiving. Voters aged 30 to 44 break Democratic by 17.5 points on the House ballot, and voters under 30 do so by 32.9 points. Those same younger groups are also far more likely to say the country is on the wrong track and far more likely to disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran.
Gender is the other fault line that stands out. Men favor the Republican House candidate by 8.2 points, 48.4% to 40.2%. Women favor the Democrat by 17.2 points, 52.8% to 35.6%. That gap does much to explain why a president with a loyal base can still find his party trailing nationally. Women are also more negative on the president’s job performance and more pessimistic about the country’s direction. In a close midterm, that difference is not incidental. It is structural.
Then there is the SAVE America Act, where the survey delivers a reminder that issue politics does not always follow party orthodoxy. Overall support for requiring proof of citizenship to register and vote in federal elections is substantial: 65.7% support the requirement, including 58.5% who strongly support it, while 28.8% oppose. Republicans back it overwhelmingly, of course. But the more revealing figure is among Democrats, where opinion is divided rather than uniformly hostile: 41.3% support the requirement, while 51.8% oppose it. Among independents, support runs 58.5% to 31.5%. Men and women both support it by wide margins, though men do so more intensely. The main soft spot is among younger voters, especially those under 30, where uncertainty rises sharply to 24.0%.
That suggests the SAVE Act is not simply a partisan rallying cry. It appears to sit closer to the public’s instinct for electoral order than many national operatives may assume. For Democrats, it is a warning that election-integrity language can travel well beyond the Republican base. For Republicans, it is evidence that they can win issue arguments even while losing broader evaluations of the president.
The Cuba question shows the opposite phenomenon: a public not yet settled. Voters support policies aimed at weakening Cuba’s communist government by 41.8% to 29.5%, but a striking 28.7% remain unsure. The split is strongly partisan, with Republicans supportive and Democrats opposed, while independents are almost evenly divided and unusually uncertain. Younger voters are more skeptical; older voters are more supportive. Women are more likely than men to say they are unsure. That is less a settled consensus than a reminder that foreign-policy questions, unless they arrive at the kitchen table, often remain secondary and fluid.
Taken together, these numbers suggest an electorate that is neither in revolt nor at ease. It is alert. It is polarized. It is prepared to vote. It disfavors the president and leans Democratic on the congressional ballot. But it is also willing to endorse tougher procedural measures such as proof-of-citizenship requirements, and it has not formed a firm consensus on every question before it.
That is the underlying message of this poll. The public is not in a mood to issue a blank check. But neither is it marching in ideological lockstep. It is judging each question on its own terms, with suspicion toward power, impatience with drift, and a hardening sense that 2026 will not be a sleepy midterm, but a test of direction.