Quantus Insights June 26, 2025 National Political Survey
A Nation on Edge: War, Leadership, and Division in the American Mind
In the heat of a fresh Middle East conflict and the aftershocks of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the American electorate remains firm in its divisions and cautious in its instincts. The June national poll captures a country suspended between strength and skepticism between its appetite for deterrence and its distaste for war.
President Trump’s approval rests at a tight and tense 47%, while 50% disapprove. Of those backing him, just over half do so with force: 27% strongly approve, compared to 40% who strongly disapprove. Independents split, unsure whether to commit or recoil, while women and college-educated voters lean away. His support is firm among Republicans (57% strongly approve), but the wider electorate remains a contested field.
Iran, Israel, and the Fog of War
If the Iranian regime was hoping to find sympathy among American voters, they’ll find none here. A staggering 84% say Iran should not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, a rare point of bipartisan unity in a divided nation.
But while Americans oppose a nuclear Iran, their appetite for escalation is another matter.
President Trump’s decision to launch Operation Midnight Hammer—a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities—earns approval: 47% back it, and only 36% disapprove, for a +11 approval on the matter.
The split is stark:
75% of Republicans support the strike.
61% of Democrats oppose it.
Independents break even (39% approve and 40% disapprove).
When asked if the U.S. should risk broader war—boots on the ground, lives in the balance—the nation recoils:
48% oppose escalation if it means American boots on ground.
43% support it,
And even many supporters of the strike begin to hesitate.
The message is clear: surgical strength is tolerated. A second Iraq is not.
Handling of the Israel-Iran Conflict: A Majority Stands with Trump
On the most pointed question of foreign leadership—Trump’s handling of the Israel-Iran conflict, including military action and ceasefire efforts—60% of voters approve, while 25% disapprove, and 15% remain unsure.
This is the President’s strongest showing in the poll across all issue-specific questions. Notably:
Republicans (90%) back him overwhelmingly, while Democrats (28%) are largely opposed.
59% of Independents approve of Trump's actions
Suburban (59%) and rural (72%) voters back him in force; urban voters support him by a slimmer 52%.
Even approval among independents makes this a rare area of cross-partisan majority, especially remarkable given the context of military force and Middle East volatility.
In contrast to Trump’s 47% overall job approval, this 60% approval on the conflict shows that the public distinguishes between presidential popularity and crisis leadership. Where foreign policy is concerned, Americans don’t need to like the man. They want to believe he has a grip on the wheel.
However, the same voters are greatly concerned about another round of US military involvement in the region over the next few years. 82% express concern and seem to lack appetite for what has been called "forever wars."
Loyalty to Allies, but Not Blindly
On Israel, Americans remain loyal but war-wary. 41% support continuing aid to Israel, even if it increases the risk of U.S. military involvement. But that support has limits. 43% are against continual support if it means US involvement in regional conflicts.
61% of Republicans say stand by Israel, no matter the cost. Only 26% are against the relationship.
Only 28% of Democrats agree, compared to 55% that disagree.
Among independents, 47% oppose the idea, while 33% support it.
Even here, realpolitik tempers rhetoric. The commitment is tepid and the leash is short.
What Justifies War? Blood
The clearest consensus comes when the stakes are personal. If Iran attacks American troops or citizens, 48% support a full-scale U.S. military response tempered by 39% who say it would depend on the scale of the attack. Only 14% outright reject the idea of retaliation. That includes:
64% of Republicans say yes; 26% say it depends on scale.
38% of Democrats say yes; 44% agree that the scale of attack is more important.
42% of independents say yes and 46% also agree proportionality determines their approval.
There is no thirst for conquest or regime change, but there is no tolerance for blood spilled without reply.
The Brass and the Doubts
Trust in the military’s leadership to handle another Middle Eeastern conflict is slipping. A total of 62% are confident (34% are very confident) the current leadership can handle a conflict with Iran. Nearly one-third 31% lack confidence altogether.
The divide is generational and partisan. Older voters and Republicans still salute. Younger Americans, scarred by Afghanistan and Iraq, raise a skeptical brow.
2026 in the Distance, and in the Balance
Asked who they’d back in a congressional race if the election were held today:
42% choose the Republican candidate,
43% opt for the Democrat, and
15% remain undecided.
This is not a wave. It is a trench war. Each side holds ground but the center is fluid.
Among suburban voters, the fight is fiercest. In rural areas, the GOP dominates. In urban strongholds, Democrats show surprising vulnerability. The country’s dividing lines aren’t just partisan. They’re geographic, cultural, and carved deeper by each news cycle.
The New Faces of Power
Vice President JD Vance, once a political curiosity, is now a known figure:
47% view him favorably
53% unfavorably
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, remains under the radar:
36% favorable,
41% unfavorable,
23% don’t yet know him.
In today’s political theater, that anonymity is both a risk and an opportunity.
A Country Holding Its Breath
Finally, voters were asked if the country is on the right track. The answer? Grim but familiar:
41% say yes
50% say no.
Even among Trump’s strongest supporters, unease simmers. Approval isn’t the same as confidence. Americans want leadership but they're tired of promises. They want results but not at any cost.
This is not a pacifist nation. But it is a weary one. It remembers Kabul. It remembers Baghdad. It does not want to be tested, but it will not run. The mood is measured. The judgments are sharp. And the next move—for Trump, for the military, for the country—will not be taken lightly.
Fielded: June 23–25, 2025 | Sample: 1,000 Registered Voters
Conducted by: Quantus Insights | MoE: ±3% | See presentation and cross tabs here.