Quantus Insights Nails 2024 Rust Belt Polls with Unmatched Precision

Quantus Insights’ final Rust Belt polls closely mirrored election outcomes, reaffirming the Rust Belt as a reliable gauge and solidifying our reputation as an industry leader in election accuracy.

In a critical 2024 election year, Quantus Insights delivered polling results across the Rust Belt with striking accuracy. Known for its swing-state influence, the Rust Belt—including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—once again proved decisive. Quantus Insights’ final polling in these battlegrounds captured voter sentiment with a total margin of error across the region averaging less than 0.6%, underscoring our capacity to read the electoral landscape with unmatched precision.

Wisconsin:
In Wisconsin, where polls showed a razor-thin race, Quantus Insights’ final survey on October 28-29, 2024, placed Donald Trump at 49.1% and Kamala Harris at 48.9%, within a ±3.8% margin of error. The final results showed Trump edging out Harris 49.7% to 48.8%—a difference of just 0.6 percentage points from our forecast. This near-identical result highlights the fine margins at play in a state as politically balanced as Wisconsin.

Michigan:
Quantus Insights’ polling in Michigan captured the tight nature of the race, though it ultimately showed Harris narrowly in the lead while the state went to Trump. Our October 26-28 poll put Harris at 49.2% and Trump at 48.5%, within a ±3.4% margin of error. The actual results showed a narrow Trump win, with 49.7% to Harris’s 48.3%, resulting in a 1.2-point difference from our final numbers. Although our poll had the wrong candidate slightly ahead, it accurately reflected the competitiveness of Michigan in this election.

Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania proved to be one of our most accurate polls, with Quantus Insights’ final numbers showing Trump leading by 2.1% (Trump 50.3% to Harris 48.2%). The final tally (Trump 50.6% to Harris 48.5%) confirmed this exact margin, with our top-line finish deviating by only 0.6%—a testament to our polling accuracy in high-stakes states like Pennsylvania.

Setting a New Standard for Polling Accuracy

Quantus Insights’ precision across the Rust Belt speaks to the strength of our data-driven methodology, which integrates demographic insights, voter sentiment, and economic conditions to deliver a holistic view of voter behavior. With a cumulative average error below 0.6% across these three key states, our polling stands among the most accurate in the 2024 cycle.

As campaigns look ahead to future elections, the Rust Belt will remain a focal point of strategic efforts, and Quantus Insights’ success in this region reinforces our position as a leading authority in political polling.

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