Quantus Insights National Poll: A Presidency in Stalemate
Trump holds his coalition but the middle remains elusive. Support is strong, stable and stuck.
The top line is clear: President Trump remains underwater in public approval a trend that began in April and has held firm through late July. Approval sits at 47%, disapproval at 50% (47.4% to 49.9%). In electoral terms, that’s not fatal but it is far from dominant. For a president who thrives on momentum, the static nature of these numbers is a signal: the base is holding, but the middle isn’t moving. (See full crosstabs and slide presentation here.)
Demographics: The Trump Coalition and Its Limits
Age & Gender
Donald Trump’s approval among young voters (18–29) stands at a surprising 46%, nearly even with disapproval. But look closer and the real story breaks out: among young men, Trump hits 57% approval with a +17 net margin. Among young women, he crashes to 38% approval with a steep –20 net.
That’s a 37-point gender swing inside the same age group a split that’s not just cultural, it’s electoral.
Across the full sample:
Men approve of Trump at 52%, with just 46% disapproving — a +6 net.
Women: 43% approve, 53% disapprove — –10 net.
Trump’s support is male-heavy, younger than expected, and hardening along gender lines. The idea that “young voters oppose Trump” is outdated. True for women, increasingly false for men.
The age gap still exists. Voters 45+ disapprove by 5 points, while 18–44-year-olds split evenly at 49% approve, 47% disapprove.
This isn’t a realignment. But it’s a shift. And if this trend holds, young men in swing counties may not just show up. They might tip the balance.
Ethnicity: The Real Story Beneath the Surface
Whites remain Trump’s electoral anchor — holding steady at around 50% support, with commanding strength particularly men, with 56% backing the president.
Among Hispanics, the picture is mixed. Trump draws 46% approval from Hispanic men, signaling continued inroads, but falls to 38% among Hispanic women, a gender gap that mirrors national trends.
The real headline, though, is Black voters: Trump posts 39% approval overall, with 49% of Black men backing him, a historic high for a Republican. It’s not a realignment yet, but it’s no longer an outlier. The once-solid bloc is showing visible fractures.
Support among “Other” races is modest but competitive roughly on par with Hispanic numbers.
The racial polarization that has long defined American politics is still in place but it’s fraying at the edges, and in a country decided by razor-thin margins, the edges matter.
Coalition and Constraint: The Limits of Trump’s Reach
Among white non-college voters, Trump commands 53% approval to 44% disapproval, a solid +9 margin, though well below his peak numbers. This group remains the bedrock of his coalition, and one that pollsters consistently struggle to reach and measure accurately. Still, the white working class appears firmly aligned with his message and, for now, unmoved.
What has changed — notably — is support among white college-educated voters. Trump now pulls 46% approval from that group, a marked increase from previous cycles where he routinely trailed by larger numbers. That soft but steady movement is driven largely by white college men, where margins are less hostile than among their female counterparts.
White college: 46% approve / 53% disapprove (–7 net)
White non-college: 53% approve / 44% disapprove (+9 net)
White women overall remain softer with 45% approving, and52% disapproving. White college-educated women are still one of Trump’s weakest blocs. Across education lines, the pattern holds.
That may seem counterintuitive, but it's driven by race and gender splits. Among non-white, non-college voters (particularly women), disapproval remains strong.
Trump’s base is still white, male, and blue-collar but it’s quietly growing among white college voters, particularly men. Meanwhile, cracks in the Democratic coalition among Black and Hispanic men aren’t decisive yet but they are real, and they are growing.
Party Affiliation: Loyalty, Rejection, and the Fight for Independents
Trump remains firmly in command of his party:
·87% of Republicans approveof his job performance, including 55% who strongly approve.
·Among white Republicans, that number jumps to 91%. A sturdy wall of loyalty that forms the core of his coalition.
Democrats, by contrast, remain overwhelmingly opposed:
·83% disapprove overall, including a crushing 74% who strongly disapprove.
Among white Democrats, disapproval soars to 85%.
The real battleground is with independents:
Trump draws 38% approvaland 58% who disapprovefor a –20 net margin.
White independents track nearly identically: 39% approve, 57% disapprove.
Among non-white independents, it’s worse: just 34% approve, 62% disapprove.
Even among non-white Republicans, support is strong at 78%, showing a coalition that’s more racially diverse than the media narrative often suggests.
Area Type: Trump Shows Strength in Urban Centers and Bleeds in the Suburbs
Trump’s approval hits 50% among urban voters, with 48% disapproval for a +2 net. That is exceptional for a Republican presidential candidate in recent history, especially given the collapse of urban GOP support this century. While urban support is weaker it is noticeable at 46% approve to 52% disapprove. Urban men, on the other hand, men are driving Trump’s numbers, with 53% approval.
By contrast, suburban voters disapprove by 7 points (45/52), and the gender gap is brutal:
Suburban men: 50/48
Suburban women: 41/55
In rural areas, Trump posts 49% approval to 48% disapproval. Flat on paper. But that flat line masks a persistent polling issue: rural conservatives remain among the hardest voters to reach and are routinely underrepresented. Still, even with that caveat, Trump’s numbers are soft by his own election standards. Among rural white men, approval climbs to 54%. Rural white women are nearly split at 47/50. Hardly dominant, but not hostile.
The Takeaway
This poll doesn’t show a collapsing presidency, but it does show a stalled one. Trump’s coalition is intact but boxed in, highly resilient among working-class whites and men, but hemorrhaging with women, youth, and independents.
The message here is not one of doom for Republicans. It’s one of discipline and strategy. The numbers demand a campaign that targets the persuadable and neutralizes the damage among college-educated and suburban women. That is where the 2026 battle will be won — or lost.