Quantus Insights Poll: Trump Holds a Slim One-Point Lead Over Harris in Nevada
Quantus Insights: 2024 General Election Nevada Survey Report
Quantus Insights: 2024 General Election Nevada Survey Report
Date: September 23-25, 2024
Sample Size: 628 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: ±4%
Sponsor: Trending Politics News
1. Introduction
This report presents the findings from a survey conducted among 628 likely voters in Nevada, aiming to capture voter preferences, candidate favorability, and issue prioritization ahead of the 2024 General Election. The survey was designed to be representative of the Nevada electorate, reflecting statewide demographics in terms of gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration patterns. Cross-tabs and questions and can be accessed here.
2. Methodology
Respondents were screened based on their age and voter registration status, with only likely voters included in the final analysis. Participants were asked questions about their past voting behavior and likelihood of voting in 2024, ensuring we captured an accurate picture of the electorate. The survey was administered in both English and Spanish.
The data was weighted to ensure it aligned with state-level Census data, particularly for race/ethnicity, education, gender, and age distributions. Additionally, regression analysis and historical turnout data from the 2020 and 2022 elections were used to model voter turnout. The sample was further adjusted using region data to account for regional voting patterns and local turnout trends from sources like MIT Election Data + Science Lab.
3. Electorate Breakdown from Weighted Results
Partisan ID: Democrat 34%, Republican 34%, Independent 32%
Gender: Female 51%, Male 49%
Age: 18-29 (13%), 30-44 (23%), 45-64 (36%), 65+ (28%)
Race: White (64%), Hispanic (19%), Black (7%), Asian/Other (10%)
Education: Non-college (57%), College (43%)
4. Key Findings
2020 Election Retrospective
45% of respondents voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
43% voted for Donald Trump.
2% supported another candidate, and 10% did not vote or could not recall.
Political Affiliation
Respondents identified politically as Democrat (34%), Republican (34%), and Independent (32%), showing a balanced partisan environment in Nevada.
5. Candidate Favorability
Kamala Harris:
46% of respondents view her favorably (26% very favorable, 20% favorable), while 50% view her unfavorably (36% very unfavorable).
Donald Trump:
47% view him favorably (27% very favorable, 20% favorable), while 50% view him unfavorably (38% very unfavorable).
6. Key Issues
Respondents identified the following as the most important issues in the 2024 election:
Economy, Jobs, & Inflation: 62%
Immigration/Border Security: 18%
Abortion: 16%
Crime: 3%
Foreign Policy: 1%
7. Head-to-Head Matchups
Before Biden's Withdrawal:
Donald Trump led with 49%, while Joe Biden trailed with 41%.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump:
Trump: 48.8%
Harris: 47.7%
Other: 3.5%
8. Demographic Breakdown (Trump vs. Harris)
Gender:
Male: Trump 54%, Harris 43%
Female: Harris 52%, Trump 45%
Age:
18-29: Harris 57%, Trump 38%
30-44: Trump 50%, Harris 47%
45-64: Trump 51%, Harris 46%
65+: Trump 50%, Harris 47%
Race:
White: Trump 55%, Harris 42%
Black: Harris 76%, Trump 21%
Hispanic: Harris 56, Trump 42%
Asian /Other: Harris 49%, Trump 45%
Education:
Non-college: Trump 52%, Harris 45%
College graduate: Harris 55%, Trump 42%
Partisan Identity:
Republicans: Trump 91%, Harris 3%
Democrats: Harris 94%, Trump 5%
Independents: Trump 50%, Harris 43%
9. Issue Trust
When asked who they trust more to handle key issues, respondents indicated:
Economy & Jobs: Trump 52%, Harris 44%
Immigration & Border Security: Trump 53%, Harris 39%
Crime & Safety: Trump 49%, Harris 42%
National Security & Foreign Policy: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Abortion Rights: Harris 60%, Trump 33%
10. Nevada Representation
Donald Trump was viewed as better representing Nevada by 51.3% of respondents, while Kamala Harris was favored by 48.7%.
Conclusion
The Nevada electorate remains deeply divided, with both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris garnering nearly equal support. Trump leads Harris by 1.1% in the head-to-head match-up, indicating a highly competitive race in this key battleground state. The economy, immigration, and abortion rights are driving voter preferences, with Trump maintaining an edge on economic issues and immigration, while Harris is more trusted on social issues like abortion. Given the tight margins and the importance of independent voters, Nevada will play a pivotal role in the 2024 election.