Quantus Insights Polling: Wisconsin and Michigan in Dead Heat
As the 2024 election nears, Wisconsin and Michigan polls reveal two fiercely contested battlegrounds that could decide the nation's direction. Both states, pivotal in recent elections, show razor-thin margins between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, underscoring the candidates’ equal pull on these electorates.
Wisconsin: A State Divided Along Economic and Social Lines
According to our latest poll from Wisconsin (Oct 28-29, 2024), the race remains essentially tied, with Trump at 49.1% and Harris at 48.9%, placing the two within the survey’s ±3.8% margin of error. Key demographics reveal the split: Trump sees strong support among white voters and those without college degrees, while Harris captures a majority among younger voters (18-29) and those with higher education credentials.
Issue-wise, Wisconsin voters display divergent priorities. The poll indicates Trump has an advantage on economic matters, with 52% of respondents trusting him over Harris to manage jobs, inflation, and the economy. Similarly, on immigration and crime, Trump holds a marginal lead, indicating his enduring appeal among voters who prioritize security and economic security. Conversely, Harris finds support on social issues, leading on abortion rights— an issue that resonate strongly among her younger, college-educated supporters.
Michigan: Another Neck-and-Neck Contest
In Michigan, results from our Oct 26-28 poll place Harris at 49.2% and Trump at 48.5%, again within a narrow ±3.4% margin of error. Here, the divide runs along similar demographic and issue-based lines. Harris's edge with women and younger voters underscores her support in urban and suburban regions, while Trump maintains a lead among non-college-educated voters and older age brackets, notably within rural areas.
Economic concerns dominate voter priorities in Michigan as well, with Trump leading on economic management, favored by 52% of respondents. Immigration and border security issues also lean in Trump’s favor, yet Harris maintains a stronghold on reproductive rights and healthcare, aligning with her more progressive support base. Notably, when asked if the country was better off during Trump's first term, 50% of Michigan respondents agreed—a sentiment that may bolster Trump’s appeal among economically motivated voters looking to recapture pre-pandemic stability.
The Stakes for November 2024
In both states, undecided voters—although a small percentage—could tip the balance as Election Day looms. Moreover, the data from these surveys highlight an electorate still deeply split, with each candidate drawing fervent backing from contrasting demographics and issue priorities. Wisconsin and Michigan represent critical electoral battlegrounds, and with their combined 25 electoral votes, they could once again play a decisive role in determining the White House occupant.
As the candidates ramp up their final campaigns in these regions, their ability to sway swing voters on economic and social issues will likely be pivotal. For now, both Wisconsin and Michigan are set to deliver yet another nail-biting finish, making them states to watch closely in the days leading up to November.