Quantus Insights: Setting the Standard for Polling Accuracy in 2024
Quantus Insights: Proving That Polling Is Far From Broken
In the unpredictable world of election polling, accuracy isn’t just a benchmark—it’s the gold standard by which pollsters earn trust and credibility. In the 2024 presidential election, Quantus Insights proved itself to be one of the most accurate and reliable polling organizations in the nation, delivering results that stood out in an industry often criticized for misses and missteps.
With a combined error rate of just 1 point across key Rust Belt states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and a national poll projection that was within 0.7 points of the final results, Quantus Insights didn’t just meet expectations; it exceeded them.
Accuracy in the Rust Belt and Beyond
The Rust Belt states were once again the centerpiece of the 2024 electoral battlefield. These states are notoriously difficult to poll due to demographic diversity, turnout variability, and their swing-state status. Despite these challenges, Quantus Insights achieved remarkable accuracy:
Michigan: Projected a Trump victory with a 1.2% error for Trump and 0.9% for Harris, for a total error of 2.1%.
Pennsylvania: Nearly flawless projections with a 0.1% error for Trump and 0.5% for Harris, totaling just 0.6% error.
Wisconsin: Delivered a combined error rate of 0.6%, reinforcing its reputation for precision in this pivotal state.
Nationally, Quantus Insights forecasted Trump with 49.1% of the vote and Harris with 48.3%, missing the final popular vote outcome by just 0.7 percentage points—a level of precision rarely achieved in modern polling.
Consistent Accuracy in Swing States
Beyond the Rust Belt, Quantus Insights continued to demonstrate unparalleled performance in other critical battlegrounds:
Nevada: With a 1.9-point error, accurately captured the subtle shifts toward the GOP in a state that has been difficult for pollsters to predict in recent cycles.
North Carolina: Quantus projected results within 1.6 points, reflecting the state’s evolving electorate while confirming its status as a Republican stronghold.
These successes are not just outliers—they reflect a commitment to methodological rigor, real-time analysis, and a deep understanding of voter behavior.
Setting the Standard for Election Modeling
Quantus Insights' combined election models were among the most accurate of the 2024 cycle, giving Trump a 65% chance to win the presidency and the popular vote. This model, based on advanced turnout predictions and demographic analysis, proved remarkably effective in capturing the final Electoral College outcome of 312 votes for Trump and 226 for Harris.
While other pollsters struggled to account for late-breaking trends or enthusiasm gaps, Quantus excelled in adjusting for these variables, ensuring projections remained both accurate and actionable.
Why Quantus Insights Stands Out
In a year where high-profile misses (such as the controversial Iowa poll projecting Harris ahead) dominated headlines, Quantus Insights consistently delivered accuracy and reliability. This success stems from three core principles:
Methodological Innovation: Leveraging voter file data, turnout modeling, and A/B testing to refine projections and address common biases.
Data Transparency: Providing clear breakdowns of state-level and national predictions, allowing clients and stakeholders to understand the numbers behind the results.
Commitment to Excellence: By embracing challenges and adapting to new realities, Quantus ensured that its results were not only precise but also trustworthy.
Looking Ahead
The 2024 election proved that polling is far from obsolete—when done right, it remains a vital tool for campaigns, media, and voters. Quantus Insights has set a new benchmark for what accuracy and reliability should look like in a fast-evolving political landscape.
As the firm continues to refine its methodologies and expand its reach, it’s clear that Quantus is not just keeping pace with the industry—it’s leading the way.
In an era where trust in institutions is more important than ever, Quantus Insights stands as a testament to the power of innovation, rigor, and integrity.