Red Districts, Shrinking Margins
Margins Shrink in Florida, Liberals Surge in Wisconsin
Florida delivered two wins for the GOP on Tuesday night — but neither came with much comfort.
In back-to-back special elections for the state’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, Republicans held both seats. Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, won FL-01 with 57% of the vote, succeeding Matt Gaetz. Randy Fine claimed FL-06 by 14 points, taking over from Mike Waltz. On paper, two solid wins.
But in context, the numbers raise eyebrows.
Donald Trump carried these same districts in November by 30-plus point margins. Last night’s returns fell 16 to 22 points short of that mark — a warning sign for a party that can’t afford to let its most reliable strongholds soften.
In FL-01, Patronis underperformed Trump’s margin by 22 points and lagged behind the GOP’s 2024 House candidate by 17. In FL-06, Fine’s win was similarly muted, with a 19-point drop from Trump’s baseline. These aren’t swing districts. They are blood-red, military-heavy, deeply Republican turf.
That’s why the slippage matters.
Democrats didn’t win these races — and they weren’t expected to. But their ability to shave margins in places like the Panhandle and the Space Coast points to an electorate that may not be shifting, but is certainly stirring.
The reasons are open to interpretation. Fatigue? Organization? A reaction to events under Trump’s second term? Regardless, it’s happening.
Pair this with the Wisconsin Supreme Court result — where a liberal judge flipped Trump’s 2024 win into a nine-point Democratic victory — and the signal becomes stronger. Republicans are holding ground, but not holding momentum.
The lesson from Florida is simple: even in safe seats, vigilance is required. A 14-point win in a 30-point district may still be a win, but it’s not a mandate. And it’s not a trend Republicans can afford to ignore.