September 2024 Election Models Update: A Complex Presidential Race Unfolding
Models Show Harris Leading in Popular Vote but Trump Retains Electoral College Edge
This analysis brings together multiple forecasting models, revealing a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. While Harris shows a slight lead in the popular vote across various models, the Modus: Battleground Model indicates Trump’s continued advantage in the Electoral College. The Concordia model also highlights Harris's position, showing a historical winning probability of 43% with a composite score of 5.1. The findings emphasize the critical role of battleground states, suggesting that the election’s outcome will hinge on narrow margins, making it one of the most competitive races in recent history.
Our September 2024 election models present a multifaceted view of the Harris vs. Trump race, drawing on diverse methodologies to assess the candidates' prospects.
Electorate Model: Harris leads Trump 49.6% to 47.5%, emphasizing demographic support across racial groups. This model underscores her strength among Black and Hispanic voters, which offsets Trump's dominance among White voters.
Modus Model: This model, which heavily weighs real-time polling and economic sentiment, projects Harris at 47.6% and Trump at 46.4%, reflecting a close contest but with Harris slightly ahead. The emphasis on current voter sentiment and economic indicators suggests that Harris’s edge may be sensitive to fluctuations in these areas.
Economic + Polls Model: Harris holds a slight advantage, 50.6% to 49.4%. This model incorporates broader economic metrics, including personal income growth and consumer confidence, showing a slightly more optimistic scenario for Harris, especially if economic conditions hold steady.
Concordia Model: The Concordia model gives Harris a composite score of 5.1, translating to a historical winning probability of 43%. The model forecasts her National Popular Vote (NPV) share to range between 48% and 49%. This score places Harris in a precarious position—stronger than recent incumbents who lost, but not firmly in the winning camp, highlighting the uncertainty and competitiveness of this election cycle.
Modus: Battleground Model: Despite Harris's overall popular vote lead, this model indicates that Trump could win the Electoral College. With a calculated 60% probability of securing 291 electoral votes, this model highlights the persistent structural advantages Trump holds in key battleground states. The analysis reveals the relative bias toward Trump in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where his support may outperform the national popular vote.
Together, these models paint a picture of a highly competitive race. While Harris appears to lead in the popular vote, Trump’s strength in crucial battleground states poses a significant challenge. This nuanced analysis suggests that the election could hinge on narrow margins in key states, making the outcome far from certain.