September: New Quantus Models Update
Tight Margins, Shifting Dynamics: Trump Holds Electoral Edge, Harris Leads National Vote
As of the latest update on September 22, our models provide a clear picture of where the 2024 election probabilities stand. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:
Trump vs. Harris Overview
Trump’s win probabilities are currently at 59%, securing 291 electoral votes (ECVs).
Harris’s win probabilities are at 41%, with 247 electoral college votes projected.
Despite this, Harris maintains a slight edge in the national popular vote leading Trump by +1.3% across the combined election models.
Election Model Breakdown
Electorate Model: Harris holds a slight lead of +2 percentage points, signaling strength for Harris in voting demographics and turnout.
Modus Model (Voter Sentiment): Harris leads by +2.6%, which captures voter sentiment at this point in the election.
Consensus Model (Economic Sentiment): Trump pulls ahead by +0.9%, showing a more favorable economic outlook for his campaign.
Combined Model: Combining all metrics gives Harris 49.5% and Trump 48.2%, leading to Harris's +1.3% margin in the national popular vote.
Concordia Model Analysis
The Concordia composite score for Harris is currently at 6.3, still below the critical threshold of 7, which means her historical winning probability is at 42% to 45% according to the S-curve.
Harris’s national popular vote projection holds at 49%, indicating a close race nationally but does not increase her odds electorally.
Modus Battleground Updates
The Modus Battleground Model continues to project a Trump victory with 291 electoral college votes, with Harris projected to have narrow win margins in key battleground states Michigan and Nevada.
Conclusion:
As the models stand, Trump holds a slight edge in win probabilities and electoral votes, but Harris continues to show strength in the national popular vote. The electoral map remains tight. The models as of September 22, show Harris winning Michigan and Nevada by small margins, by less than one-point in both states. However, Trump is still projected to finish above 270 electoral college votes with 291.