Sununu Leads Pappas in Hypothetical New Hampshire Senate Matchup

Neither Candidate Has Announced, But Our Early Polling Suggests a Strong Start for the GOP in the New Hampshire 2026 Senate Race

As New Hampshire looks ahead to the 2026 Senate race, former Republican Governor Chris Sununu holds a strong 53% to 44% lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas in a hypothetical matchup, according to our latest survey (see crosstabs here) of registered voters. While neither candidate has officially announced, both are widely expected to run, setting the stage for a pivotal contest in a battleground state.

Sununu’s early advantage is driven by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a solid lead among independents (52% to 44%), and a commanding performance among men (59% to 39%). Women are evenly split at 48%, while Sununu holds a key advantage among non-college voters (58%), a critical demographic in recent New Hampshire elections.

This matchup reflects a broader rightward shift in the state. In 2024, Donald Trump lost New Hampshire to Kamala Harris by 2.8 points, a marked improvement from his 7.3-point defeat to Joe Biden in 2020. While New Hampshire has long been a political battleground, this data suggests shifting electoral terrain—one where Sununu’s popularity and crossover appeal could make the Senate seat a formidable challenge for Democrats to defend.

Yet, national dynamics remain uncertain. Trump’s approval rating in the state sits at 43.8% approve, 48.5% disapprove, with deep partisan divides. He retains strong backing among Republicans (83% approve) but struggles with independents (37% approve, 54% disapprove), a crucial voting bloc in New Hampshire. The challenge for Republicans will be translating Sununu’s personal appeal into broader GOP momentum, particularly if national headwinds intensify in 2026.

New Hampshire is no stranger to political volatility, and while Sununu’s early numbers are strong, the race is far from settled. If both men enter the race, Democrats will look to close the gap, while Republicans will hope Sununu’s coalition holds through Election Day.