Tennessee 2026: Blackburn In Command of GOP’s Fortress State
Quantus Insights Polling of 600 registered Tennessee voters, August 5–7, 2025, shows Marsha Blackburn as the dominant GOP frontrunner in a deeply Republican state.
In Tennessee politics, strength is measured not in inches but in miles and right now, Marsha Blackburn owns the highway. At 35% in the early Republican gubernatorial primary ballot, she holds more support than all named rivals combined. (See full report and cross tabs here).
The field has already thinned with Tim Burchett’s decision to not run for the governor's seat, removing one of the few credible challengers who might have cut into her base. Even with his name still in the survey, her dominance is clear. Among Republican voters, she commands a majority—51.5%—and is strongest with men (41.8%) and seniors (49.1%), the core troops in the GOP infantry.
The general election math is just as decisive. Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green 49% to 28%, with 17% undecided. Her strength is broad-based, driven by over 81% Republican loyalty and strong margins among white voters, non-college Tennesseans, and those 65+. Even John Rose, who lags far behind her in primary strength, defeats Green 43% to 27%, evidence of the state’s deep Republican lean.
That lean is structural. Strip away names and it’s still a 52%–32% GOP advantage in generic ballot preference. Tennessee remains Trump Country. He holds a 60% job approval and a 58–28 recall vote lead over Harris, identical to his 2024 30-point margin of victory in the state. His endorsement remains a net asset in the GOP primary, with 39% saying it would make them more likely to back a candidate.
The terrain for Democrats is uphill and rocky. The GOP’s advantage spans nearly every demographic except African Americans and urban voters. Issues work against them as well. Jobs and the economy are the top concerns (39%), followed distantly by health care (18%) and public safety (12%), all traditionally Republican-favored battlegrounds.
Governor Bill Lee sits at a 56% approval. Respectable, though not as commanding as Trump, suggesting space for a successor to define their own identity. Voters say they want a governor who listens to regular people (30%) and holds strong conservative values (22%), aligning neatly with Blackburn’s established brand.
The 2026 Tennessee governor’s race begins as Blackburn’s to lose in a GOP fortress state. The numbers suggest this contest is more about managing the Republican coalition than surviving a competitive general election. Unless the fundamentals change, Democrats remain on the outside looking in.