Texas Senate Primary: Trouble at the Top

New Quantus Insights poll shows Cornyn trailing badly in the Texas GOP Senate primary.

For Senator John Cornyn, the numbers from the latest Quantus Insights poll (See CROSS TABS HERE) read less like a snapshot and more like a warning. Among Republican voters in Texas—a state where ideological clarity and outsider energy often beat institutional seniority—Cornyn appears to be in deep political trouble.

He’s the incumbent, yes. But that title seems to be doing him few favors. The data suggest he’s losing his grip on the Republican base, with support lagging behind expectations for a sitting U.S. Senator. The challenge isn't just name ID or temporary drift—it's something deeper: fatigue, frustration, or perhaps a hunger for a different kind of leadership. In any case, Ken Paxton leads incumbent Senator Cornyn 52% to 39%, with 9% undecided.

Enter the hypothetical: Wesley Hunt. The congressman hasn't even announced, yet the survey shows that if he were to join the race, a significant slice of the electorate is prepared to shift. That’s not a small tremor. That’s structural erosion—an incumbent unable to lock down loyalty in a primary field that hasn’t even fully formed. And while it underscores the incumbent’s vulnerability, it’s Paxton—not Cornyn—who stands to lose the most ground if Hunt gets in.

And then there’s Trump. When voters were asked if his endorsement would sway their vote, a clear pattern emerged. For many, Trump still carries weight—more than any single candidate in the race. The message? This isn’t just a Senate primary. It’s a referendum on what kind of Republican Party Texas wants in 2026.

The terrain has changed. Party lines are no longer drawn solely by seniority or fundraising firepower. They are redrawn by movement energy, perceived authenticity, and alignment with the GOP base's post-2016 priorities.

If Cornyn can’t reframe the race—and fast—he risks becoming a casualty of that new political order.