The Electoral College "Bias" and Its Potential Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election
A State-by-State Analysis of Electoral College Advantages and What They Could Mean for Trump and Harris in 2024
As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, the role of the Electoral College remains a focal point of discussion. The Electoral College, an institution rooted in the U.S. Constitution, has long been a subject of both scrutiny and defense. Its design, intended to balance the influence of populous states against those with smaller populations, has led to outcomes where the winner of the national popular vote does not always secure the presidency. The 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is a notable example, where Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the potential impact of the Electoral College on the 2024 election deserves careful examination, particularly in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Mechanics of Electoral College Bias
The concept of “Electoral College bias” refers to the advantage or disadvantage a candidate may have in the Electoral College relative to their performance in the national popular vote. This bias occurs due to the winner-take-all approach most states use to allocate their electoral votes, combined with the distribution of voter preferences across different states. As a result, a candidate can win critical states by narrow margins, securing all their electoral votes, while losing other states by large margins, which does not affect their electoral vote count.
In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Donald Trump benefited from this bias. For instance, in 2016, he won key Rust Belt states by small margins, which tipped the Electoral College in his favor despite losing the national popular vote. In 2020, although Joe Biden won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, Trump still showed strong performance in several battleground states, highlighting the persistent bias that could once again be pivotal in 2024.
The 2024 Battleground States
Several states are expected to play a crucial role in the 2024 election, particularly those that have shown significant relative biases in favor of Trump in the past. These states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Each of these states has a history of tight races and holds substantial electoral votes that could determine the outcome of the election.
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes): Arizona has emerged as a battleground state in recent years, with a relative bias of +2.3% favoring Trump in 2020. This bias suggests that even with a close popular vote, Trump could have a strong chance of winning the state’s electoral votes. If the 2024 race is tight, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes could be decisive.
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes): Georgia, traditionally a Republican stronghold, flipped blue in 2020. However, with a +2.5% bias in favor of Trump, Georgia remains a highly competitive state. In a scenario where Trump edges out in the popular vote or even ties, Georgia could easily swing in his favor, making its 16 electoral votes critical.
Michigan (16 Electoral Votes): Michigan’s +1.0% bias for Trump indicates a less pronounced but still significant advantage. The state’s blue-collar demographic, particularly in rural areas, has shown strong support for Trump, which could be a deciding factor in 2024 if the race is close nationally.
North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes): With a +3.1% bias, North Carolina remains one of the most favorable states for Trump. The state has consistently leaned Republican in recent elections, and its 15 electoral votes could easily go to Trump in 2024, especially in a scenario where the popular vote is close or slightly in his favor.
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes): Nevada, with a +0.9% bias, is more of a toss-up compared to the other states. Its relatively small number of electoral votes makes it less impactful on its own, but in a tight race, every vote counts. Trump’s ability to gain ground in Nevada could prove important, particularly if other key states are in play.
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes): Pennsylvania’s +2.0% bias is significant given its large number of electoral votes. As in previous elections, Pennsylvania is likely to be a major battleground. A small shift in the popular vote in Trump’s favor could secure the state’s 20 electoral votes, which would be a major boost to his Electoral College tally.
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): Wisconsin, with a +2.1% bias for Trump, is another critical state. The state’s electoral votes have swung between parties in recent elections, making it a key target for both campaigns. A small advantage in the popular vote could give Trump the edge he needs to win Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
Potential Outcomes in 2024
The scenarios for the 2024 election, based on varying popular vote margins, highlight the potential impact of the Electoral College bias:
R+1 to Even: If Trump wins the popular vote by a small margin (R+1) or if the race is a tie, his probability of winning key states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona would be near 100%. This scenario could yield a decisive Electoral College victory for Trump, with an estimated 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226.
D+1: Even with a 1% lead in the popular vote for Harris, Trump could still win several critical states, leading to a closer but still favorable outcome for him, with around 292 electoral votes.
D+2: As the Democratic lead grows to 2%, Trump’s chances diminish, but he could still win states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, potentially resulting in a tight race with 272 electoral votes for Trump.
D+3: With a 3% lead for Harris, the race becomes a toss-up, with Trump’s chances and electoral votes significantly reduced. In this scenario, Harris could win with a slight majority in the Electoral College.
Conclusion
The 2024 election is shaping up to be another closely contested battle where the Electoral College could play a decisive role. The relative biases in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina suggest that even a small advantage in the popular vote for Trump could translate into a substantial lead in the Electoral College. As both parties prepare for what is expected to be a highly competitive race, understanding the dynamics of the Electoral College and its impact on key states will be essential for predicting the outcome.
In the end, the Electoral College continues to underscore the importance of winning not just the popular vote but also the right combination of states. As the 2024 campaign unfolds, all eyes will be on the battleground states, where the election will ultimately be decided.