Trump and Cruz Lead Comfortably in Texas
Quantus Polls and News Survey Shows GOP Dominance in the Lone Star State
Introduction
The latest survey (cross tabs and questions) conducted by Quantus Polls and News offers a comprehensive insight into the current political landscape of Texas as the 2024 U.S. Presidential and Senate elections approach. Conducted on August 29th and 30th, (sponsored by a private individual in the state of Texas) this survey polled 1,000 registered voters across the state to gauge their opinions and intentions. With a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level, the results provide a reliable reflection of the electorate’s mood in Texas. The survey methodology included weighting based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, partisan identity, and turnout patterns, ensuring that the data accurately mirrors the state’s diverse population.
Demographics and Political Affiliation
The survey’s demographic breakdown reveals a nuanced portrait of the Texas electorate. Among those surveyed, 32% identified as Democrats, 40% as Republicans, and 28% as Independents. The gender composition was fairly balanced, with women making up 52% of respondents and men 48%. Age distribution showed that 24% were aged 65 and older, 36% were between 45 and 64, 25% were aged 30 to 44, and 15% were aged 18 to 29. The racial composition included 59% White, 23% Hispanic, 12% Black, and 6% identifying as Other. Educationally, 62% of the respondents were non-college graduates, while 38% held college degrees.
Additionally, the survey captured the electorate's 2020 voting behavior, with 49% having voted for Donald Trump and 43% for Joe Biden, while 8% didn’t vote or do not remember voting, further highlighting Texas’s leaning towards the Republican Party in past elections.
Candidate Favorability
The survey explored the favorability of key political figures, revealing significant insights into voter sentiments. Former President Donald Trump received a mixed response, with 49% of respondents viewing him favorably (25% very favorable and 24% favorable) and 49% viewing him unfavorably (18% somewhat unfavorable and 31% very unfavorable). This split underscores the deep polarization within the electorate, with a small 2% of voters remaining undecided or holding no opinion.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability ratings were more uneven with 45% of respondents holding a favorable view of her (23% very favorable and 22% favorable), while 52% viewed her unfavorably (14% somewhat unfavorable and 38% very unfavorable) and 3% had no opinion.
Head-to-Head Matchups
The survey results indicate that Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Kamala Harris in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, 49% indicated support for Trump, compared to 42% for Harris, with 3% favoring another candidate and 6% remaining undecided. This result suggests that Trump retains a strong base of support in Texas, a state that has historically leaned Republican.
In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Senator Ted Cruz leads Democratic challenger Collin Allred by a margin of 50% to 43%, with 3% supporting another candidate and 4% undecided. Cruz’s lead in the Senate race mirrors Trump’s lead in the presidential race, indicating a general Republican advantage in the state.
Further analysis shows that when voters were given a choice between Trump, Harris, or abstaining from voting, Trump’s lead widened, with 52% supporting Trump, 44% supporting Harris, and 4% indicating they would not vote. This suggests that Trump’s support is more solidified among voters who are less likely to be swayed by other candidates.
Issue Importance and Trust
The survey also delved into the issues that matter most to Texas voters and whom they trust to handle these issues effectively. The economy and jobs emerged as the top concern, with 35% of respondents identifying it as the most pressing issue. Immigration and border security followed closely at 28%, reflecting the significant impact of border issues on the Texas electorate. Healthcare and access to abortion were also notable concerns, cited by 11% of respondents.
When it comes to trust in handling these key issues, Trump leads Harris on several fronts. Trump is trusted more on the economy and jobs (53% to 43%), immigration and border security (55% to 37%), crime and safety (52% to 44%), and national security/foreign policy (51% to 45%). These issues resonate strongly with Texas voters, particularly among the Republican base.
Conversely, Harris is more trusted on healthcare and education (51% to 45%) and abortion rights and restrictions (53% to 38%). These areas of strength for Harris highlight her appeal among Democrats and more progressive voters, particularly women and minority groups.
Election Prediction
With Trump leading in direct match-ups, it's unsurprising that a majority of respondents (53%) believe he will ultimately win the election, compared to 47% who think Kamala Harris will be victorious. This alignment between voter intentions and their expectations reflects the strong support for Trump in Texas.
Conclusion
The Quantus Polls and News Texas survey provides a detailed snapshot of the political climate in Texas as the 2024 elections approach. The results indicate a comfortable lead with Trump holding an 8 point leader over Harris, reflecting the state’s Republican hold on the state. Trump’s commanding lead on significant issues of the economy, immigration, and healthcare will likely play crucial roles on Election Day.