Trump Edges Harris With Small Lead In Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania Political Survey Report
Quantus Polls and News - Pennsylvania Survey Report
Sample Size: 500 Registered Voters
Conducted: July 27 and July 28, 2024
Survey Overview
Donald Trump leads Vice President Harris by just over a point with 47.6% support, to Harris’ 46.4%, according to the latest Quantus Polls and News survey of Pennsylvania. The former president has a favorability rating of 47% compared to an unfavorable of 50%. Kamala Harris has a favorability rating of 46% with an unfavorable rating of 48%.
Survey Methodology
The survey of Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted online using the Pollfish panel, with a sample size of 500 respondents. The survey was conducted from July 27 to July 28, 2024. The data collection was carried out using custom and commercial software to ensure the highest accuracy and reliability of responses.
Weighting Methodologies
To ensure the sample accurately represents the demographic composition of Pennsylvania's registered voter population, the results were weighted according to key demographic variables such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education. Weighting adjustments were made using iterative proportional fitting (raking) to align the sample with known population parameters from industry sources to ensure the demographics of survey respondents are representative of the registered voter population. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%, which accounts for the design effect due to weighting and the inherent variability in sample-based survey estimates.
Demographic Breakdown:
• Gender: 48% Male, 52% Female
• Age: 14% (18-29), 22% (30-44), 37% (45-64), 27% (65+)
• Race/Ethnicity: 81% White, 10% Black, 9% Hispanic/Other
• Education: 39% College Graduates, 61% Non-College Graduates
Key Findings
Question 1: Political Identification
• Democrat: 39%
• Republican: 37%
• Independent/Other: 24%
The survey indicates a nearly even split between Republicans and Democrats among Pennsylvania registered voters, with Independents/Other accounting for a significant portion of the electorate at 25%.
Question 2: Opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris
• Favorable: 46%
• Unfavorable: 48%
• Neutral/No Opinion: 6%
The survey results reveal a distinct difference in favorability ratings for the candidates based on gender:
Men: Among male respondents, 40% expressed approval while 47% disapproved.
Women: Female respondents showed higher approval at 52%, with an equal disapproval rate of 48%.
Overall, the combined approval rating across genders stands at 46%, with a disapproval rating of 48%. This indicates that while female respondents are more supportive, the overall sentiment is slightly more negative due to the higher disapproval rates among male voters.
Question 3: Opinion of Former President Donald Trump
• Favorable: 47%
• Unfavorable: 50%
• Neutral/No Opinion: 3%
The survey results highlight gender-based differences in approval ratings for the candidates:
Men: Among male respondents, 51% expressed approval while 46% disapproved.
Women: Female respondents showed lower approval at 43%, with a higher disapproval rate of 54%.
Overall, the combined approval rating across genders stands at 47%, with a disapproval rating of 50%. This indicates that male respondents are more supportive, whereas female respondents exhibit a more negative sentiment, resulting in a slightly more negative overall approval rating.
Question 4: Presidential Preference (Trump vs. Harris)
The presidential race in Pennsylvania is extremely tight, with Trump slightly leading Harris by a margin of 1.2 percentage points. However, the difference falls within the margin of error, indicating a dead heat between the two candidates.
• Donald Trump: 47.6%
• Kamala Harris: 46.4%
• Undecided/Other: 6%
Analysis
Trump's strongest support comes from voters aged 45-64, with 53% of this group backing him. Harris, on the other hand, has her highest support among the youngest voters (18-29), where she leads with 56%. The undecided voters are relatively evenly distributed across age groups, with a slightly higher percentage among the younger demographics.
Harris has overwhelming support from Black voters, with 80% backing her, compared to 16% for Trump. Among Hispanic and voters of other races, Harris also leads but by narrower margins. White voters predominantly support Trump, who has 53% of their backing. The percentage of undecided voters is relatively low across all racial groups.
Educational attainment shows a clear divide in voter preference. Trump leads among voters without a college degree (51%), while Harris has a stronger showing among college graduates (54%). This trend indicates that educational background plays a significant role in candidate support, with higher-educated voters leaning towards Harris.
Analysis reveals significant demographic divides in the Pennsylvania electorate. Gender, age, race, and education are key factors influencing voter preferences. Trump has strong support among male, older, and White voters, as well as those without a college degree. In contrast, Harris's support is stronger among female, younger, and non-White voters, particularly those with higher education levels. The presence of undecided voters is minimal but could be crucial in a tightly contested race. The demographic insights suggest that both campaigns need to tailor their strategies to appeal to these specific voter groups to gain an advantage in Pennsylvania.
Question 5: Impact of Josh Shapiro as Harris' Running Mate
Overall Results:
• More likely to vote for Harris: 20%
• No change in my vote (already likely to vote for Harris): 27%
• Less likely to vote for Harris: 2%
• More likely to vote for Trump: 14%
• No change in my vote (already likely to vote for Trump): 25%
• Less likely to vote for Trump: 1%
• No impact / don't know: 10%
The selection of Josh Shapiro as Kamala Harris's running mate has a marginal positive impact on her support. 20% of respondents stated they would be more likely to vote for Harris with Shapiro on the ticket, while 14% said they would be more likely to vote for Trump. The majority of voters (51%) indicated that Shapiro's selection would not change their vote.
Conclusion
The survey reveals a highly competitive political landscape in Pennsylvania, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump having substantial but nearly equal support. While both candidates have net disapproval ratings, their support bases are strongly divided along demographic lines, with males leaning towards Trump and females towards Harris. Younger voters and non-White demographics show more support for Harris, whereas older and White voters predominantly support Trump. The addition of Josh Shapiro to the Harris ticket slightly boosts her support but does not significantly alter the overall dynamics of the race.
Implications: Given the tight race, both campaigns will need to focus on mobilizing their respective bases while appealing to undecided voters. The results highlight the importance of key demographics, such as younger voters and racial minorities, in determining the outcome of the election in Pennsylvania.