What Do Our Models Say About Joe Biden’s Win Probabilities?
A Comparative Analysis of Modus and Concordia Forecasting Models
As we approach the 2024 election, we have run both of our advanced election forecasting models—Modus and Concordia—to provide the latest probabilities for Joe Biden’s re-election chances. Here are the updated figures:
Modus Probability: 28.82%
Concordia Probability: 44.60%
Combined Probability: 36.71%
Model Differences and Their Implications
There is a significant difference between the models in how they determine Joe Biden’s chances in this election, and that can be a good thing. Each model is picking up on different conditions in the environment, yet they ultimately agree on the likely outcome:
Modus: Focused on proven electoral indicators and battleground factors. This model weighs heavily on voter sentiment through metrics like approval ratings and the Vote for Change index, highlighting strong vulnerabilities in Biden’s chances.
Concordia: Incorporates a wider range of data points and tends to reflect recent polling trends more dynamically. This model captures Biden’s competitive polling against Trump and considers economic factors more broadly.
Key Insights
Approval Ratings: Biden’s lower approval rating is a significant factor holding him back in both models. The Modus model, designed to weigh voter sentiment heavily, reflects this more starkly, giving Biden a much lower probability.
Polling Data: Concordia picks up on the fact that Biden is polling neck-and-neck with Trump in the last 20 polls, which is keeping his probability more competitive in this model. However, his composite score is still below the 7.3 threshold that successful re-election candidates typically exceed.
As an incumbent, strictly speaking, Concordia suggests that Biden isn’t running all that badly in this race (data set) except for the approval factor. Concordia also highlights that Biden's economic factors are at least salvageable if his approval rating were higher.
Conclusion
The final point is that both models agree Trump has a higher probability of winning the election over Biden. After millions of Monte Carlo simulations, the two models have never disagreed on the winner and loser. However, it’s worth noting that the gap between the two models this size has ever been observed in past elections.
The differences between Modus and Concordia highlight the complexities of election forecasting, capturing different aspects of the current political climate. This divergence in their predictions underscores the importance of using multiple models to gain a comprehensive understanding of the electoral landscape.