What Does Our Model Say About the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Assessing Joe Biden's Re-election Chances Through Historical and Economic Lenses.
As the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election approaches, our advanced analytical models, Concordia and Modus, provide a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This analysis delves into the workings of Concordia, the metrics it incorporates, and what it reveals about the current state of the election.
Introducing Concordia: Methodology and Framework
The Concordia model integrates both national and state-level analyses to provide a robust prediction of election outcomes. By combining various factors such as polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends, Concordia delivers reliable projections for both the National Popular Vote (NPV) and the Electoral College Votes (ECV).
Key Metrics Incorporated in Concordia:
Approval Rating: Current approval rating of the incumbent.
Polling Data: Aggregated polling data adjusted to reflect the two-party vote share.
Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: Current GDP growth rate.
ISM Manufacturing Index: A measure of manufacturing activity.
Unemployment Rate: Current unemployment rate.
Inflation Rate: Current inflation rate.
Concordia Model's Composite Score Calculation
To simplify the evaluation of an incumbent's re-election prospects, Concordia calculates a composite score that integrates these key metrics.
Components:
Approval Rating Component:
\(Approval Rating Component = 0.25×(Approval Rating−50)\)\(Approval Rating Component = 0.25×(39−50)=0.25×(−11)=−2.75\)GDP Growth Component:
\(GDP Growth Component = 0.15×(GDP Growth−2.5) Since GDP Growth is 1.4%, and it is below 2.5:\)\(GDP Growth Component = 0.15×(2.5−1.4)=0.15×1.1=0.165\)Inflation Rate Component:
\(Inflation Rate Component = 0.15×(3−Inflation Rate) Since the inflation rate is 3.5%, and it is above 3:\)\(Inflation Rate Component = 0.15×(3−3.5) =0.15×(−0.5)=−0.075\)ISM Manufacturing Index Component:
\(ISM Manufacturing Index Component = 0.15×(ISM Index−50) Since the ISM index is 48:\)\(ISM Manufacturing Index Component = 0.15×(48−50) =0.15×(−2)=−0.3\)Unemployment Rate Component:
\(Unemployment Rate Component = 0.15×(4.5−Unemployment Rate) Since the unemployment rate is 4%, and it is below 4.5:\)\(Unemployment Rate Component = 0.15×(4.5−4)=0.15×0.5=0.075\)Polls Component:
\(Polls Component = 0.15×(Polling Data)\)Since Biden's polling data is 44.6%:
\(Polls Component = 0.15×44.6=6.69\)
Total Composite Score Calculation:
Findings from Concordia
Concordia Model:
Joe Biden's Composite Score: 3.8
This score is below the historical threshold of 7.4, which generally indicates a strong re-election prospect. Incumbents with scores below this threshold, such as Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, faced significant re-election challenges and lost to their respective challengers.
Using the Concordia model on the most current data, we project Joe Biden's national popular vote to be approximately 44.29%. This projection is calculated by analyzing historical patterns and integrating the composite score into the model's framework.
Historical Comparisons:
Jimmy Carter (1980): Carter faced severe economic problems, high inflation, and the Iran hostage crisis, leading to a composite score of 5.45 and his eventual defeat.
George H.W. Bush (1992): Bush's re-election bid was hindered by the early 1990s recession and a composite score of 3.34, contributing to his loss.
Ronald Reagan (1984): With a high approval rating and a strong economy, Reagan had a composite score of 13.37 and won re-election decisively.
Barack Obama (2012): Despite economic challenges, Obama maintained a composite score of 8.74 and secured re-election.
Conclusion: State of the Race
The Concordia model’s comprehensive analysis of the 2024 Presidential race indicates that Joe Biden is currently in a challenging position for re-election. With a composite score of 3.8, which is below the historical threshold, combined with unfavorable polling data and public sentiment, Biden faces significant hurdles. These findings suggest a high probability of Biden facing re-election difficulties based on current data.
Our findings emphasize the need for continuous monitoring and strategic adjustments to address these challenges and improve Biden's standing with the electorate. The Concordia model, integrating various key factors, offers a robust framework for understanding and projecting election outcomes, providing valuable insights for campaign analysts and subscribers.
Modus Model (Static & Dynamic modes): In addition to Concordia, the Modus model complements our analysis by focusing on dynamic and static projections for the National Popular Vote (NPV). It uses historical data, approval ratings, and economic sentiment to forecast election outcomes under various scenarios.