That looks pretty reasonable to be honest. I would think Wisconsin would flip too. PA would be close. Our last PA poll just a couple of weeks ago had Trump ahead by a little more than a point.
As someone recently said . EVERYONE has a bias ( you are obviously a Conservative) but very few can honetly report in spite of it.
For sure the Main Stream Pollsters and Aggregaters are not capable of checking their bias forthe most part...which is why Trump always outperforms the Polls
Thanks for the Poll
My Comments are as follows
Am I correct with the following analysis ?
assuming about 7% undecided / others :
Whites....... 53% Trump ....40% Harris ...Trump plus 13 is similar to the 2020 exit polls ?
Blacks ...,,,,16% Trump...77% Harris......Trump was 12% in 2020 so this is better
Hispanics ,,,Trump 39%,,Harris 54%...Trump was 32% in 2020 so again this is better
Assuming the undecideds split
Would this result in a EC win based on battleground race demographics ?
I use the Cook Swingometer...what do you think of it ?
https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer?CEWv=515&NCWv=358&AAv=872&HLv=629&AOv=679&CEWt=628&NCWt=625&AAt=542&HLt=456&AOt=428
Thanks
That looks pretty reasonable to be honest. I would think Wisconsin would flip too. PA would be close. Our last PA poll just a couple of weeks ago had Trump ahead by a little more than a point.
Thanks for the response .
Oe would expect an EC win for Trump ( sans mega cheating ) with a T -1 electorate
I would still think we are seeing a response bias at least until after the convention.
This is your first national Poll I think...correct ?
Yep, first national poll and yes, response bias is a bit nuts right now. We'll likely be polling Wisconsin or Michigan next.
You are dong good non biased election reporting
Not many are capable of that . Kuddos to you
Good luck with this substack
I have been following your work on X
As someone recently said . EVERYONE has a bias ( you are obviously a Conservative) but very few can honetly report in spite of it.
For sure the Main Stream Pollsters and Aggregaters are not capable of checking their bias forthe most part...which is why Trump always outperforms the Polls
Cheers
thank you! we appreciate that!