A look at 2014, 2018, and 2022 suggests August can reveal the political environment, but mid-October is a much better guide to the final national House vote.
If there is any consistent pattern from August polling through October it’s that the party in the White House never sees its fortunes improve. That’s been the case in midterms going back decades. At best, their fortunes stay the same. Otherwise the bottom falls out. 2010 is a great example of the latter. Republicans were ahead in the polls in August but it wasn’t until October when their lead exploded.
So far the only thing Republicans have going for them is generic ballot polling which isn’t saying much. In elections held for the last year they’ve been doing horribly and much worse than they were in the 2018 cycle. Primary turnout has been much bigger on the Democratic side than it was in that cycle, too. Combine those two with Trump’s approval rating being atrocious and it has blue wave written all over it. Even on the generic ballot it’s worse when pollsters ask likely voters.
Democrats got saved by abortion last time, but nothing like that has happened this cycle.
If there is any consistent pattern from August polling through October it’s that the party in the White House never sees its fortunes improve. That’s been the case in midterms going back decades. At best, their fortunes stay the same. Otherwise the bottom falls out. 2010 is a great example of the latter. Republicans were ahead in the polls in August but it wasn’t until October when their lead exploded.
Yep. That is the size of it all. Especially when you're seeing larger leads of 5 points or more. It's a good directional indicator of things to come.
So far the only thing Republicans have going for them is generic ballot polling which isn’t saying much. In elections held for the last year they’ve been doing horribly and much worse than they were in the 2018 cycle. Primary turnout has been much bigger on the Democratic side than it was in that cycle, too. Combine those two with Trump’s approval rating being atrocious and it has blue wave written all over it. Even on the generic ballot it’s worse when pollsters ask likely voters.
Democrats got saved by abortion last time, but nothing like that has happened this cycle.